So, that’s a big claim – but I kind of have the answer. Towards the start of last year’s Premier League season, I predicted the final standings. The prediction was based on a fairly simple premise; the table after 12 games is pretty much the table after 38 games. As I said then:
“I heard about the theory a couple of years ago and – give or take a bit of movement – the theory was sound. There’s normally a couple of big changes. And as I said before, you have to have an accepted error of one or two places around most teams.”
So, how did I do for the 2009/10 season? See for yourself below:
12 games / 38 games / movement
- Chelsea / Chelsea (spot on)
- Arsenal / Man Utd (+1)
- Man Utd / Arsenal (-1)
- Tottenham / Tottenham (spot on)
- Aston Villa / Man City (+1)
- Man City / Aston Villa (-1)
- Liverpool / Liverpool (spot on)
- Sunderland / Everton (+5)
- Stoke / Birmingham (+6)
- Blackburn / Blackburn (spot on)
- Burnley / Stoke (-2)
- Fulham / Fulham (spot on)
- Everton / Sunderland (-5)
- Wigan / Bolton (+2)
- Birmingham / Wolves (+4)
- Bolton / Wigan (-2)
- Hull / West Ham (+1)
- West Ham / Burnley (-7)
- Wolves / Hull (-2)
- Portsmouth / Portsmouth (spot on)
Pretty good, is my conclusion. Just five teams (Everton, Birmingham, Sunderland, Wolves and Burnley) finished more than two places away from their predicted finish. As many as six finished in the correct spot. The rest were within the expected error margin of two places.
If you’d bet on the champions, you’d have won. If you’d bet on the top four, you’d have won. You’d have lost on the bottom three bet, but only just. And that is a hard one to call, because there’s always one club that falls like a stone.
You can’t actually beat the bookie, obviously. But the 12 game system is probably as close as you’re going to get.
The spring 2010 edition of CIO Connect magazine was printed and posted during my recent paternity leave. The magazine hoasts the usual mix of business IT features and leadership profiles, including extended articles on sustainability, social media and leadership success.
As ever, thanks to all the CIOs, business leaders and technology experts who contributed their time and opinions. Below is a full list of featured participants (in order of appearance):
- Natasha Davydova, group head of strategy for global technology and operations for Standard Chartered
- Jody Goodall, head of research and development at Trader Media
- Omar Haque, managing director at AxiomCSG and formerly consultant at RS Components
- Dave Fleming, head of ecommerce and innovation at Shop Direct
- Andrew Abboud, CIO at City University London
- Professor Lee Schlenker, chair of emerging economies and technologies at EM Lyon Business School
- Scott Herren, managing director and vice president at Citrix
- Ian Pratt, vice president for advanced products at Citrix and chairman of Xen
- David Head, director of La Fosse Associates
- Dominic Batchelor, senior associate at Ashurst LLP
- Inbali Iserles, professional development lawyer at Ashurst LLP
- Danièle Tyler, solicitor at Ashurst LLP
- Robin Johnson, CIO at Dell
- Stephen hand, CIO at Lloyd’s Register
- Alistair Russell, advisory services director at CIO Connect
- Maggie Berry, managing director at womenintechnology.co.uk
- Bobby Cameron, principal analyst at Forrester
- David Southern, head of IT at WWF UK
- Phil Collard, head of business and operational support at Scottish and Southern Energy
- Tony Young, CIO at Informatica
- Steve Palmer, CIO at London Borough of Hillingdon and President of Socitm
- Lorie Buckingham, CIO at Avaya
- Les Taylor, director for business development and IS at the Disposal Services Authority (DSA)
- Robbert Kuppens, European CIO at Cisco
- Dan Matthews, CTO at IFS
- Myron Hrycyk, CIO at Severn Trent
- Jane Kimberlin, IT director at Domino’s Pizza Group
- Phil Durbin, head of IT at UNICEF UK
- Matthew Pontefract, CTO at Glasses Direct
- Alistair Cox, chief executive at Hays
- Ian Woosey, IT director at Carpetright
- Heather Corby, HR director of BT Innovate and Design
- Eachan Fletcher, CIO at Sporting Index
- Ian Cohen, CIO at Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group