Football is now a young man’s game

Common consensus has it that a player peaks at about 27 or 28. Clubs traditionally look to buy players in their mid-to-late 20s, knowing they’ll have four years at the top of their game. That pattern is slowly changing.

Arsene Wenger has made a career of selling players in their late 20s at the Arsenal. When he sold Thierry Henry to Barcelona in 2007,  it was a controversial move – Henry was at the top of his game. Now, three years later, the sale of the then-29-year-old seems like a master stroke. Henry has never recaptured his best form for Arsenal.

Now look at the England team. The average age of the England squad at the 2010 World Cup was over 28; they were well-beaten by a team (and that word in the case of England’s defeat is also an explanation) that was on average four years younger. Even England’s younger players – such as Rooney and Milner – are experienced; both started their first team careers at 16.

The peak in football is no longer 28. It’s more like 26, possibly younger. England need to freshen their team up but the problem is that there are few talented youngsters coming through. Just James Milner was a member of England’s 2009 U21 European Championship team, a side that lost 4-0 to Germany in the final. Four of Germany’s side yesterday came from that triumphant team.

England need a younger team. But while Lampard et al might look spent at international level, there are no young replacements coming through. Once again, it comes back to the way we produce football players – and the bad news for England is that the talent simply isn’t there. Welcome to the international wilderness. We might have to get used to it.

England will never get better at football

“Oh, this could be enjoyable,” suggested the over-excitable and frankly tiresome Clive Tilsley four minutes into England’s first World Cup match against USA. For the record, it wasn’t.

England huffed and puffed to a tedious draw against the nation of baseball and basketball, before looking far worse against Algeria. Another similar performance against Solvenia on Wednesday will see the country that invented the sport returning home.

Having invented the sport is part of the problem. Our “proud history” creates some sort of rose-tinted effect, where everyone – the media and the populace at-large – believes we have a right to win the World Cup (or at least to get pretty close). For the record, we don’t.

We might have invented football in England but we have always been pretty naff. The rest of the world quickly surpassed us – Scotland, for example, showed us the short passing game at the end of the 1800s. Hungary, on the other hand, showed us how to play quickly and intelligently in the post-War era.

The last 50-or-so years, 1966 excepted, have shown us to be a second rate footballing nation that relies on kick and rush. Our record in major tournaments is woeful. Added to 1966′s World Cup win is a fourth place in 1990; Sweden, hardly a football giant, has finished second once, third twice and fourth once.

We might go and beat Slovenia. We might then go and win the World Cup. I doubt it but it would be bloody great. If we don’t succeed, everyone will start bleating about the need to change the way we play football. Yet 130 years of kick and rush suggests this will not be easy.

England has a woefully poor coach to player ratio, unlike other major nations such as Spain, Germany and Italy. Fifa sees this ratio as the “golden thread”; the key to success in major football.

Nothing will change unless you stop people shouting “just get the ball forward”. And this is never, ever going to happen. It’s the soundtrack to watching football in England, from school pitches to Wembley. Enjoy the World Cup.

How to beat the football betting system

So, that’s a big claim – but I kind of have the answer. Towards the start of last year’s Premier League season, I predicted the final standings. The prediction was based on a fairly simple premise; the table after 12 games is pretty much the table after 38 games. As I said then:

“I heard about the theory a couple of years ago and – give or take a bit of movement – the theory was sound. There’s normally a couple of big changes. And as I said before, you have to have an accepted error of one or two places around most teams.”

So, how did I do for the 2009/10 season? See for yourself below:

12 games / 38 games / movement

  1. Chelsea / Chelsea (spot on)
  2. Arsenal / Man Utd (+1)
  3. Man Utd / Arsenal (-1)
  4. Tottenham / Tottenham (spot on)
  5. Aston Villa / Man City (+1)
  6. Man City / Aston Villa (-1)
  7. Liverpool / Liverpool (spot on)
  8. Sunderland / Everton (+5)
  9. Stoke / Birmingham (+6)
  10. Blackburn / Blackburn (spot on)
  11. Burnley / Stoke (-2)
  12. Fulham / Fulham (spot on)
  13. Everton / Sunderland (-5)
  14. Wigan / Bolton (+2)
  15. Birmingham / Wolves (+4)
  16. Bolton / Wigan (-2)
  17. Hull / West Ham (+1)
  18. West Ham / Burnley (-7)
  19. Wolves / Hull (-2)
  20. Portsmouth / Portsmouth (spot on)

Pretty good, is my conclusion. Just five teams (Everton, Birmingham, Sunderland, Wolves and Burnley) finished more than two places away from their predicted finish. As many as six finished in the correct spot. The rest were within the expected error margin of two places.

If you’d bet on the champions, you’d have won. If you’d bet on the top four, you’d have won. You’d have lost on the bottom three bet, but only just. And that is a hard one to call, because there’s always one club that falls like a stone.

You can’t actually beat the bookie, obviously. But the 12 game system is probably as close as you’re going to get.

Spring 2010 edition of CIO Connect magazine

The spring 2010 edition of CIO Connect magazine was printed and posted during my recent paternity leave. The magazine hoasts the usual mix of business IT features and leadership profiles, including extended articles on sustainability, social media and leadership success.

As ever, thanks to all the CIOs, business leaders and technology experts who contributed their time and opinions. Below is a full list of featured participants (in order of appearance):

  • Natasha Davydova, group head of strategy for global technology and operations for Standard Chartered
  • Jody Goodall, head of research and development at Trader Media
  • Omar Haque, managing director at AxiomCSG and formerly consultant at RS Components
  • Dave Fleming, head of ecommerce and innovation at Shop Direct
  • Andrew Abboud, CIO at City University London
  • Professor Lee Schlenker, chair of emerging economies and technologies at EM Lyon Business School
  • Scott Herren, managing director and vice president at Citrix
  • Ian Pratt, vice president for advanced products at Citrix and chairman of Xen
  • David Head, director of La Fosse Associates
  • Dominic Batchelor, senior associate at Ashurst LLP
  • Inbali Iserles, professional development lawyer at Ashurst LLP
  • Danièle Tyler, solicitor at Ashurst LLP
  • Robin Johnson, CIO at Dell
  • Stephen hand, CIO at Lloyd’s Register
  • Alistair Russell, advisory services director at CIO Connect
  • Maggie Berry, managing director at womenintechnology.co.uk
  • Bobby Cameron, principal analyst at Forrester
  • David Southern, head of IT at WWF UK
  • Phil Collard, head of business and operational support at Scottish and Southern Energy
  • Tony Young, CIO at Informatica
  • Steve Palmer, CIO at London Borough of Hillingdon and President of Socitm
  • Lorie Buckingham, CIO at Avaya
  • Les Taylor, director for business development and IS at the Disposal Services Authority (DSA)
  • Robbert Kuppens, European CIO at Cisco
  • Dan Matthews, CTO at IFS
  • Myron Hrycyk, CIO at Severn Trent
  • Jane Kimberlin, IT director at Domino’s Pizza Group
  • Phil Durbin, head of IT at UNICEF UK
  • Matthew Pontefract, CTO at Glasses Direct
  • Alistair Cox, chief executive at Hays
  • Ian Woosey, IT director at Carpetright
  • Heather Corby, HR director of BT Innovate and Design
  • Eachan Fletcher, CIO at Sporting Index
  • Ian Cohen, CIO at Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group

Will auditors allow your data to reside in the cloud?

While I was away on paternity leave, Computer Weekly published my feature on cloud computing, security and audit trails. Here’s the intro, with a link to the full article below:

“Do you fear the auditor more or the attacker?” asks Peter Bassill, chief information security officer at gambling giant Gala Coral Group.

It is a key question for IT leaders thinking of dabbling in on-demand computing provision through the cloud. For Bassill, there is only one answer, particularly for firms operating in highly regulated sectors: “A lot of companies fear the auditor more. If you hold data internally, you can show the auditor your controls, but the cloud makes such demonstrations more difficult.”

The resulting complications mean many businesses still shy away from on-demand IT. About 40% of UK companies use cloud computing systems, according to the Information Systems Audit and Control Association. This represents a significant proportion of British organisations, but implementation levels – certainly with regards to large-scale enterprise systems – are nowhere near matching the cacophonous intensity of supplier hype.

For the full feature, click here.

Normal service will be resumed soon…

Apologies if you’ve visited this site during the last couple of weeks and found that, well, not very much has changed. I’ve been on paternity leave, following the birth of my second daughter Jemima on 8th April. It’s back to work on Monday, so I’ll make sure to keep the site fresh.

At home, all is well. Mummy is recovering and Lily is coping with being a big sister. Thanks to all for your best wishes.

Speak soon and up the Villa!

Cost-cutting CIOs call on the executive team

IT leaders value the opinions of executive and IT team peers when it comes to cost cutting, according to CIO Connect research.

Cost savings continue to be a major priority for IT leaders. Recent research from CIO Connect suggests that cost remains a key business priority for 2010, despite the increased importance of strategies for growth.

And an additional poll from CIO Connect shows that most IT leaders are likely to consider the views of executive and departmental peers when calculating potential cost savings. In both cases, as much as 50% of CIOs suggest the views of either the executive board, or the IT team, are most important.

Click here to read more…

As a CIO, how is your relationship with the FD?

We’re putting the feelers out for some new research at CIO Connect. The research addresses the relationship between the finance director and CIO – if you’re an IT leader, we’d love to hear from you. Here’s the blurb:

Do you sometimes feel like you’re playing Oliver to your FD’s Mr Bumble? Or have the tough economic conditions provided an opportunity for you to work closely together on IT-driven efficiencies to help cut operational fat?

CIOs expecting budget increase in 2010 are among the lucky few. Only one third are anticipating a bigger slice of the pie, according to a recent survey by analyst group Ovum, and even then expectations are slim – an increase of between just 1% and 5%. Meanwhile, CIOs taking part in a Gartner survey at the beginning of the year said they are planning on IT budgets in 2010 mirroring 2005 levels.

The recession has left its scar and many FDs are wary the economy could bite again in the face of high unemployment and the UK debt burden. Understandably, they are reluctant to dish out more from the organisational pot. With FDs under pressure to keep finances tight, and CIOs hit with greater demands to do more with less, how does this challenging dynamic impact your working relationship?

We are carrying out a survey to discover just how the vital partnership between CIO and FD is working in the current economic climate. Click here to find out more and to participate in the survey.

The FD, the CIO and the implementation of cloud computing

I’ve just written a feature for Financial Director, which shows that cloud computing has received mixed reviews but can save the FD and CIO money:

The terminology associated with the dark art of business technology can sometimes make finance directors feel as if they are back at school. Bamboozled by a series of buzzwords developed by the technical clique, they could be forgiven for tuning out when the chief information officer (CIO) begins bending their ear.

But the baffling jargon associated with IT obfuscates a business necessity; technology is changing the way business operates and the finance function is not immune to such transformation. What is more, the changes associated with cloud computing – the latest hyped-up killer app in technology – are potentially the most far-reaching yet.

Moving all your databases, systems and software onto an internet-based platform rather than running it through expensive hardware platforms, cloud computing breaks the traditional and costly model of IT purchasing and implementation. Rather than being tied to rigid licensing models for under-used technology, it allows the business to make use of an internet-enabled form of technology provision…

For the full feature, click here.

10 reasons why Aston Villa FC are by far the greatest team

The last month or so has been a reality check. I went with my Dad to the League Cup Final, thinking the game might be our opportunity to take home a trophy. One disappointing performance – and a very poor refereeing decision later – and our dreams were dashed.

More than just a defeat, the game proved to be a bit of a watershed. The Villa are still in the FA Cup but my natural Brummie despondency leaves me to conclude we’ll lose. We’re still in the hunt for fourth spot in the Premier League, too. Sky Sports would have you believe fourth spot is the promised land; I would vehemently disagree. We don’t win things very often and I would swap fourth place for victory in either of the domestic cup competitions in a heartbeat.

More to the point, I think we’d make an arse of ourselves in the Chumps League. The Villa lost in the qualifying rounds in this season’s Europa Cup and I fear a similar fate should we qualify for the European Cup (that’s the trophy’s real name, in case you’ve forgotten). I think the ‘race for fourth’ (T.M. Sky Sports 2010) will finish as follows:

  • (4th) Manchester City – Straightforward run-in; class in depth
  • (5th) Aston Villa – Not a bad run-in; not a great squad
  • (6th) Tottenham Hotspur – Bloody hard run-in
  • (7th) Liverpool – They are going nowhere fast

Which still doesn’t explain why I am being such a miserable swine when it comes to the Villa. Well, because as my Dad said: “What’s the point?” We don’t win trophies, we’re doomed to always come 6th in the League and – even we did qualify for the Chumps League – we’d end up out of the trophy and in debt. So, I had to have a think about why I still love the Villa. And here’s why:

  1. We invented football – The Football League was invented by former Villa chairman William McGregor
  2. We have a beautiful name – It’s almost poetic; I mean, just look at it: Aston Villa
  3. We play in great colours – Not red, not blue, but claret, blue and gold
  4. We won the European Cup – And no one can ever take that away
  5. We are not Birmingham City – No more comment required
  6. We have a great ground – Villa Park is a proper British football ground with four big, separate stands
  7. We are not arrogant – Villa fans expect little and get little
  8. We have won stuff – Every so often, things turn out right; we never take winning for granted
  9. We are the Samuels family – Me, my Dad, my Grandad, my Great Grandad are/were all Villa fans
  10. We had Paul McGrath – And he is God

Ah, I feel better now. Bring on Chelsea! Bring on the Chumps League!